forexexpert.net

阻力 4    -    1.9075

阻力 3    -    1.9030

阻力 2    -    1.8905

阻力 1    -    1.8870

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支持 1    -    1.8785

支持 2    -    1.8770

支持 3    -    1.8735

支持 4    -    1.8635

阻力 4    -    119.40

阻力 3    -    119.20

阻力 2    -    118.90

阻力 1    -    118.40

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支持 1    -    117.40

支持 2    -    116.90

支持 3    -    116.75

支持 4    -    116.25

阻力 4    -    1.2835

阻力 3    -    1.2790

阻力 2    -    1.2765

阻力 1    -    1.2720

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支持 1    -    1.2695

支持 2    -    1.2665

支持 3    -    1.2630

支持 4    -    1.2590

(Reuters) - The euro fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank president appeared to back a market view that interest rates will rise once more this year, but provided no clear signal on any further euro-zone tightening.

Speaking at a news conference after the ECB raised its key lending rate to 3.25 percent, as expected, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet provided no clues on the outlook for rates in 2007, disappointing some euro bulls looking for a more hawkish tone.

“It was pretty much as expected, signaling they are going to hike in December, but not clear on what happens after,” said Robert Sinche, head of global FX at Bank of America in New York. “We don’t think there was anything out of Trichet today that’s going to break out of the ranges.”

With the ECB meeting out of the way, the market’s attention was already swinging to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which will give a fresh take on the health of the U.S. job market.

The data are expected to show around 125,000 jobs were created in September, but a weaker reading could intensify speculation that a slowing U.S. economy may lead the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in coming months.

The euro was trading at $1.2685, down from $1.2710 ahead of Trichet’s press conference and off around 0.2 percent on the day.

Some dealers noted that the euro had failed to break out of its recent tight trading range. The currency has been trapped in a range of $1.26 to $1.29 for much of the past few months.

Trichet also steered away from using the word “vigilance” with regard to the ECB’s stance on inflation, which the central bank chief has often used in the past to telegraph near-term rate rises.

The euro also slipped to session lows against the yen after Trichet said he stood by his recent comments at a Group of Seven meeting in Singapore, where he said that the value of the yen should reflect Japan’s recovery from deflation.

The euro was down 0.3 percent at 149.35 yen, well below a record peak of 150.73 struck in late August.

“I would look for a break of $1.2670 on the euro and we haven’t seen that yet,” said Liz Bussanich, vice president of foreign exchange at Bank of Montreal in New York.

The pound was under pressure after the Bank of England left rates steady at 4.75 percent as expected, disappointing some sterling bulls who were betting on the outside chance of a rate rise.

The Swiss franc was also a big mover, falling sharply after Swiss National Bank board member Philipp Hildebrand said that the Swiss franc’s appreciation over recent decades appeared to have come to an end in the past four years.

[大公报]欧洲央行一如巿场所料上调利率四分一厘至3.25厘水平，继续对通胀予以警惕，今次是去年十二月以来第五次加息行动。英伦银行则维持现时利率于4.75厘水平，亦符合巿场预期。

欧央行行长特里谢会后发言时表示，今次加息行动获得官员一致赞成，目的是抑压通胀风险，维持物价稳定。他指出，从信贷增长急速可见，目前欧息仍处于低水平，同时也让内部需求推动区内经济复苏，经济增长广泛地取得平衡。

他亦表示，现时能源价格走势不明朗，但若油价跌势持续，料内部需求或可能急增，故通胀很可能上升直至今年底，故欧央行未来会密切监察物价情况。

经济师普遍预期欧央行十一月会维持利率水平，直至十二月再度加息，尽管美国经济放慢和息口见顶。

摩根大通驻伦敦高级经济师佩皮诺指出，以欧元区经济增长的速度和持续时间都叫人意外。欧央行关注区内未来十八个月通胀走势，最新通胀率暂时低于2%，但料央行不会因此改变目标水平。

昨日有关欧元区经济数据向好，相信亦成为加息理据之一。据《彭博社》委托NTC Economics统计，欧元区九月零售销售连续六个月上升，经季节调整后由八月份的52.3上升至52.4，数字超越50代表有所增长。

荷兰银行驻伦敦经济师珀金斯表示，欧洲内部经济增长得以改善，区内国民开始重投消费活动成为重要的推动力。

英国方面，英伦银行将于十月十八日发布昨晚议息会议纪录。瑞银驻伦敦经济师卡拉等分析员认为，油价回落令央行决策官员松一口气，由于英国通胀率仍在目标水平之上，估计该行会待至十一月通胀报告出炉，才有进一步加息行动，好让决策有更多理据支持。