(来源自香港太阳报)
文： 资深外汇从业员苏子劲（苏子）
昨天笔者与一认识多年的专业炒家，谈及CME期货交易所居然也提供人民币期货交易，真是厉害！这炒家即表示，CME也是以市场导向才推出人民币期货产品，因为中国人的钱好赚。笔者不明白为何中国人的钱好赚才推出人民币期货，这炒家的个人观点是，由于内地人大把钱，因此这数年来一直积极参与炒作CME的外汇期货，所以CME外汇期货多了中国人参与，近年成交量才可以急增。他还表示，中国人性格好赌，所以视炒外汇期货为赌大细而已。
不过，中国人好赌之余又正处于学习期，所以炒期货当然输给全球的精英炒家，而CME眼见中国人有源源不绝的钱可以输，机不可失，自然增加多些“赌具”给中国人赌了，为了让中国人赌得更投入，故加入人民币产品自然是顺理成章之事了。
这位炒家分析得头头是道，但CME是否真的因为中国人多钱输而增设人民币期货，则信不信由你。不过，CME肯推出人民币期货产品，已表示其非常重视内地市场，所以笔者作为中国人，亦感到有多少光彩。至于中国人是否炒期货一定输，笔者便认为世事无绝对，至少笔者亦幸运地暂时仍企在那10％的赢家行例。
中国有13亿人，连笔者这么蠢亦未输死，相信中国有这么多叻人，不难在炒作CME外汇期货时，逐步成为精英炒家，交学费的阶段很快便成历史。
(By Reuters)
The dollar fell sharply on Friday after news that U.S. jobs growth in June was far more sluggish than expected, heightening concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing.
The euro shot up to $1.2865 from around $1.2780 when the government said the economy had added just 121,000 jobs in June, well below the consensus forecast of 185,000.
It later pared those gains, easing back to $1.2824, but was still up nearly 0.4 percent on the day.
Against the yen, the dollar slipped to a four-week low at 113.82 yen before retracing some of those losses to 114.03 yen , still down 0.95 percent.
The report’s average hourly earnings component showed wages 0.5 percent higher in June, more than the forecast 0.3 percent, raising the specter of mounting inflation at a time of slower growth.
“This is exactly what the Federal Reserve does not want — lackluster jobs growth with hourly earnings creeping up significantly. This is putting the Fed in a bind that it probably does not want to be in,” said Firas Askari, head of foreign exchange trading at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
The mix of slowing growth and higher inflation “will probably force the Fed to overtighten (policy),” Askari said.
The Fed last week raised its benchmark federal funds rate a 17th straight time to 5.25 percent, and fed funds futures were pricing in a 62 percent chance that the U.S. central bank increases rates again at its next policy meeting on Aug. 8.
Rebecca Patterson, global currency strategist at J.P. Morgan in New York, said the dollar may weaken further against the euro and yen as the market absorbs the data.
Markets were geared up for a higher nonfarm payrolls number, especially after employment firm ADP this week estimated the private sector added 368,000 jobs in June.
That data prompted some Wall Street banks to raise forecasts of net job gains to between 200,000 and 250,000.
EURO STRENGTH
The euro was already stronger against the dollar heading into the data after the European Central Bank signaled on Thursday it was prepared to step up the pace of rate rises.
After the ECB kept rates unchanged at 2.75 percent, President Jean-Claude Trichet pledged “strong vigilance” against risks to price stability.
That, coupled with a string of solid euro zone data, had markets betting the ECB could lift rates at its next meeting on Aug. 3.
Markets are also expecting the Bank of Japan to end its long-standing zero interest rate policy next week, which strategists say should provide more upside room for the yen.
[大公报]巿场极为注视的日本最新短观经济报告终于出炉，当地第二季制造业景气指数升上21点，而企业计划今年资本开支更大幅增加11.6%，为十六年来最大增幅。继上周消费物价指数后，今次短观报告再一次反映日本经济呈稳健复苏，相信日央行下周结束零息政策势在必行，巿场料加息四分一厘。\大公报记者 杨静雯
日本央行公布，第二季大型制造业景气指数上升1点至21点，反映企业信心较三个月前增强，并看好下季度表现，预期第三季该指数可升上22点。而截至明年三月的财年，企业计划资本开支急增11.6%，胜过经济师预期的8.8%，亦为一九九一年三月的财年以来最强劲的一次。
至于涵盖零售、建筑及其他服务业的非制造大型企业扩散指数，连续第三个季度上升2点至20点，成为一九九二年二月以来最高水平。企业看好薪酬上升将带动销情热炽，其中高岛至百货公司预估今个财年销售额上升2.4%，高达1万亿日圆。
薪酬上升加剧通胀
但是，短观报告亦显示日本劳工巿场紧张。大型制造业就业扩散指数由三月时负1跌至现时负2水平。若以所有工业的大型企业计算，扩散指数下滑至负7，预期下个季度更跌至负10。此外，政府公布五月份受薪劳工现金薪酬总额，即包括超时补贴及奖金，呈连续四个月上升，升幅0.1%至27万7491日圆。由此可见，随着经济复苏，各大企业继续吸纳仅余的劳动人口，员工薪酬上升压力或引发通胀加剧。现时日本失业率降至4%，为八年新低。
报告公布后，日央行行长福井俊彦表示对结束零息政策采取完全开放的态度，指短观报告反映经济向好是意料之内。央行早前表示，特别注视企业资本开支有否出现过热的迹象。今次报告指出企业加大资本开支力度，料成为央行加息的重要理据。
短观报告呈现利好经济数据，加上福井昨日强硬的言论，令加息预期升温，巿场普遍预期央行很可能下周加息四分一厘。《彭博社》调查十五位经济师，其中九位认为日央行最快本月调升息率，结束为时超过五年的零息时期。
日经济处过热风险
法国兴业银行驻香港首席经济师麦格（Glenn Maguire）表示，今次短观报告显露日本经济正处于过热风险，故日央行有需要尽快与经济趋势接轨。他估计日央行下周四及周五议息时，将会进行逾五年来首度加息行动。退休基金协会基金经理川崎勉亦认为，日央行本月中加息行动蓄势待发，相信日本正朝向持久经济复苏的方向发展。
由于短观报告显示日本经济稳健增长，带动日股造好。日经平均指数上升66.44点，或0.43%，收巿报15571.62点。报告亦刺激日本十年期国债孳息，一度上升4.5个基点至1.965厘，触及七周新高。
每美元兑日圆在短观公布后，曾一度升至三周高位，高见114.11，但其后回顺至114.68水平。