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(来源自大公报)

中东政局日趋紧张，投资者寻求资金避难所，带动美元汇价升上三个月高位，每美元兑日圆在欧洲交易时段高见117.28，每欧元兑美元一度见1.2515，触及逾两周高位。另外，美国六月份工业生产胜过预期上升0.8%。\大公报记者 杨静雯

以色列与黎巴嫩暴力冲突升级，带领资金流向美国国债、黄金等风险较低的巿场，就连美元亦被视为资金避难所。澳纽银行(ANZ)外汇策略师莫里斯(Tony Morriss)看好美元走势，预估每美元兑日圆本周可上试117.5，每欧元兑美元可试1.255水平。

环球政局不稳，危机处处，巿场普遍预料避难型资金流向短期内持续。八国集团(G8)就以黎局势促请两国尽快平息冲突，而朝鲜大使朴吉渊向联合国表示，为防范美、日两国侵略，该国将会继续试射导弹。

事实上，美元走势振作，部分原因来自日本息口因素。虽然日央行上周五决定六年首次加息，调升近零利率至0.25厘，但央行行长福井俊彦随后表示，决策委员会未来将缓慢地逐步调整利率，意即日本低息时期仍维持多一段时间。日圆上周累跌1.82%，即使加息亦无力支持日圆升势。

《日本经济新闻》日前报道，日本政府将于本周三，五年来首次从每月经济报告中，弃用“通缩”字眼来形容当地消费物价，相信可以止住日圆跌势。

野村证券及三菱东京联合银行分析员仍看淡日圆，由于日本至今依然为全球最低息国家，料每美元兑日圆低见120。三菱东京联合银行货币策略师切特科夫(Paul Chertkow)指出，日本经济景气愈好，却愈吸引日本投资者将资金投向海外，寻求更高息率回报，拖累日圆汇价。

除日圆偏软外，其他亚洲货币连续第五个交易日向下，印度卢比挫至超过三年新低，低见46.58兑一美元，主要是投资者忧虑油价高企，将令该国贸易赤字恶化；印尼盾跌至两周低位，见9292兑一美元，跌幅0.9%，印尼盾自上周升见两个月新高后，现已累积回落3%。

另外，俄罗斯央行昨日让卢布兑美元及欧元一篮子货币汇价升值0.3%，主要因为油价逼近历史新高，令俄罗斯的石油货币(Petrodollar)大增，对卢布构成升值压力。在欧洲交易时段，卢布兑一篮子货币汇价一度见27.76卢布，今年来累积升值3.97%。

美六月工业生产升0.8%

美国昨晚公布六月份工业生产数据上升0.8%，超越巿场预期0.5%，主要受惠于炎热气候有利发挥产能及增加商业设备的产量。期内设备使用率提升至82.4%，创六年新高，其中制造业设备使用率达81.1%，为二○○○年五月以来最高水平。今次经济数据反映美国经济仍有过热迹象，联储局尚有加息的空间。

TOKYO, July 14 (Reuters) - The yen slipped back towards a two-week low against the dollar on Friday after the Bank of Japan said interest rates can be kept low for some time after a widely expected increase from zero, the first in six years.

The BOJ unanimously voted to lift overnight rates to 0.25 percent, ending an era of zero rates aimed at pulling the economy out of its decade-long stagnation and fighting off deflation.

But with rates in the United States and the euro zone towering much higher at 5.25 percent and 2.75 percent respectively, traders and analysts said the BOJ’s policy shift was unlikely to spur much of a yen rally just yet.

By a 6-3 vote the BOJ also raised its official discount rate to 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent, disappointing some market players who had expected a bigger increase to 0.5 percent.

“The decision is slightly bearish for the yen,” said Joseph Kraft, managing director of forex trading at Morgan Stanley Japan. “But it’s all pretty much within the parameters (of expectations) so there shouldn’t be that big of a move in the markets.”

The central bank also repeated that rate adjustments will be gradual and that rates can stay low for a while as long as inflation remains subdued.

Markets are generally looking for the BOJ to lift rates once more this year to 0.5 percent and possibly to 0.75 percent by the end of the current business year.

Following the BOJ decision, investors will tune in to comments from Governor Toshihiko Fukui at his post-meeting news conference at 0630 GMT.

“The yen is likely to face selling if Fukui says further tightening will be slow,” said Kota Kimura, currency trading manager at Shinkin Central Bank. “A rate hike today won’t be reason enough to buy the yen against the dollar.”

By 0540 GMT, the dollar was up nearly half a percent at 115.90 yen, just off the two-week high of 116.12 yen struck before the BOJ decision on electronic trading platform EBS. The Japanese currency had hit a one-month high of 113.45 yen on EBS earlier in the week.

(来源自大公报)

日本央行今天展开一连两日的议息会，巿场普遍预期央行六年来首次启动加息之门势在必行。但经济师估计今次加息之后，今年底前将不会再度调升息率。消息刺激日本五年期国库债券价格飙升，债券孳息率跌至1.43厘，创下逾一个月来最大跌幅。\大公报记者 杨静雯

市场人士正迎接日央行六年来首度加息，正式完结零息政策这个历史性时刻，标志着日本通缩时代终可画上句号。近乎百分百的经济师预期，日央行明天决定调升隔夜同业拆借利率（基准利率）四分一厘。

事实上，推动日本加息之举，除了经济呈现稳健基础外，部分由于政府官员立场软化所支持，内阁府亦刚于上周调升经济增长预期。法国兴业银行驻香港首席经济师麦格(Glenn Maguire)表示，结束长达六年的零息政策，证明日本经济周期恢复正常，展望当地经济脱离通缩，步入通胀后，可享受丰收的时光。

然而，《彭博社》调查六成经济师估计，日央行今次加息过后，今年余下的时间利率将维持该水平，并预料明年底息口将维持0.75厘以下水平。日央行前政策委员会成员、大和研究顾问田谷祯三表示，难以保证未来经济数据持续强劲，故不肯定央行会否进行今年内第二次加息。

为了收紧银根，除了调升短期利率外，预料央行亦会调整目前同样近乎零水平的官方贴现率(ODR)。巿场预测官方贴现率将由目前0.1厘，调升至介乎0.35厘至0.4厘之间，低过早前预估的0.5厘水平，相信央行不会大幅调升贴现率。

年底前不再有第二次加息，以及调低官方贴现率升幅的预测，利好日本国库债券价格上扬，债券孳息率创下上月八日以来的最大跌幅。日本五年期国债孳息一度下跌5个基点至1.43厘。

分析员认为，孳息率下降，加上股巿将走下坡，相信年底前乃购入债券的好时机。据《日本经济新闻》报道，即使结束零息政策，日央行仍会继续吸纳国债，防止长息突然急升。现时，央行每月以1万2000亿日圆购买国债。

另外，日本生产者物价指数上升3.3%，稍逊巿场预期升幅3.4%，但仍是廿五年来最大升幅，主要受到燃料和商品价格高企，料支持制造商调升产品价格，转嫁成本予消费者。法国巴黎银行经济师Azusa Kato表示，不少企业已重拾控制定价的能力，而生产者成本逐渐从消费品价格反映过来。

日本加息如箭在弦，利淡地产股表现，加上印度连环炸弹袭击削弱投资情绪，拖累日股走势向下。日经平均指数昨日收巿跌224.5点，收报15249.32点，跌幅1.45%，部分原因是鉴于美国朗讯发出盈利警告，巿场担心日本科技股企业收益，连带晶片商爱德万(Advantest)等科技股受累。

(来源自大公报)

美国五月份贸易赤字进一步扩阔，由四月份修订后的633亿美元扩至638亿美元（4976亿港元），但仍胜过巿场预期，主要由于美国企业对外出口量增加，以及国内对外需求减少，尤其是电子产品、服装及汽车。

虽然美国贸赤扩大，但较预期少12亿美元。美国五月份出口上升2.4%，为去年四月以来最大增幅，月内出口量达1187亿美元。同时，当地入口石油订单增加，推动入口上升1.8%，至1825亿美元再创新高。至于美国对中国五月份贸赤，由四月份170亿美元扩至177亿美元。

五月进口原油平均价大升4.92美元，至每桶61.74美元，为九○年八月，伊拉克攻打科威特以来最大升幅，带动美国整体石油入口同创新高达279亿美元。由年初至今，美国贸易赤字以年率计算达致7630亿美元，较去年同期高出6.5%。

经济师普遍认为，随着欧洲和亚洲经济增长，对美国出口需求日益殷切，而美国经济放慢减低入口商品消费意欲，有利美国贸赤得以纾缓。

数据公布后，美元随即升至日内高位，每欧元兑美元跌穿1.27，报1.2685；每美元兑日圆则高见115.50。鲁斯克国际公司一名资深分析员说，贸赤数字较预期小，稍微支持美元上升，但事实上，贸赤仍维持在高水平，市场将重新聚焦美国经济的结构性问题，美元随时会再遭抛售。

虽然美元汇价自前年起，一直受到息差因素所支持，但贸易赤字持续扩大，华府可能会考虑让美元贬值，以助美国出口增长。美国一名资产管理员建议投资者沽售美元以策安全，支持美元上升的结构性因素日渐转差。美国四月外资净流入并不足以填补该月贸赤。

美元走软令美国出口货品更为低廉，有助出口增长。现时美国入口约较出口多出一半，即意味出口增长速度必须加快一倍，才可消除贸赤。今年以来，美元兑其主要贸易伙伴的一篮子货币汇价累积下跌3%。

另一方面，澳洲消费者信心大幅回升，令澳洲央行下月加息的机会大增，刺激澳元汇价升见五周新高，每澳元兑美元见75.44美仙。澳洲利率现处于5.75厘，利率期货走势反映，投资者认为，澳央行下月有64%机会加息。

NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - The dollar rallied on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. trade gap grew less than expected in May, putting the greenback on course for its biggest daily gain versus the yen in eighteen months.

The trade balance helped boost the dollar across the board, but its biggest gains were against the yen, which fell after remarks by the Japanese finance minister stoked market concern that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates this week as much as initially expected.

Earlier in the week, the yen had risen to one-month highs against the dollar and three-week highs versus the euro as traders upped their bets for a 25-basis point rate increase from the BOJ on Friday, but traders rapidly turned tail and pared back their yen holdings.

“Overall this has been evidencing itself as dollar strength and today’s better-than-expected trade deficit plays into that picture. So we’ve seen primarily mostly stop-loss dollar buying as opposed to fresh dollar longs being initiated,” said Brian Dolan, director of research at Gain Capital in Bedminster, NJ.

By midday in New York, the dollar was up over 1 percent against the yen at 115.49 yen. At its session high of 115.75 yen, the dollar was posting its biggest one-day gain in percentage terms since January 2005.

Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.5 percent on the Japanese currency to 146.64 yen, but fell 0.6 percent against the dollar to $1.2695, still relatively close to its post-data low of $1.2675.

The dollar rallied after the U.S. government said the international trade deficit widened in May to $63.84 billion, from a downwardly revised $63.34 billion in April. Analysts had forecast a gap of $64.90 billion.

“The number is mildly dollar-positive. Overall, it adds to the dollar’s upbeat tone this morning, which started with support overnight thanks to a rally in the dollar-yen,” said Omer Esiner, senior market analyst at Ruesch International in Washington, D.C.

“The deficit remains at an elevated level, but for the near term, the dollar has jumped this hurdle,” he added.

But traders were concerned primarily with positioning for the first potential rate rise from the BOJ in six years when the central bank meets on Friday.

Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Wednesday the near decade-long bout of deflation was not over yet, which caused many to mull the risk the BOJ may not raise the benchmark overnight call rate by as much as the 25 basis points financial markets had largely priced in.

“The weakness of the yen … seems to be a reaction to some of the rumors that were floating around overnight that perhaps it will be just a 10 basis point move from the BOJ and that perhaps there was going to be a statement coming out that stressed that they were going to keep low interest rates for a long time,” said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York in London.