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(Reuters) - The dollar weakened against most major currencies on Thursday as investors grew increasingly skeptical the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates again next month, in light of slower growth and tamer inflation.

The dollar suffered losses for the second day in a row, even after data showed a surprisingly robust pick-up in June orders for big-ticket items and a fall in weekly jobless claims, which would suggest the U.S. economy was in better shape than many had thought.

But given Wednesday’s Beige Book report that showed the Fed anticipates slower growth and moderating price pressures ahead, traders see less need for tighter monetary policy.

“Certainly the market is debating the outlook for the Fed and the more neutral tone we’ve heard suggests the rate tightening cycle is over and I think that is what is driving a lot of the weakness we’re seeing in the dollar,” said Sophia Drossos, G10 currency strategist at Morgan Stanley.

In early afternoon New York trade, the dollar was down 0.5 percent on the day against the yen at 115.71 yen, and down 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc at 1.2375 francs.

Sterling was up 0.3 percent on the day at $1.8595, having hit a 7-week high earlier in the day, while the euro was flat at $1.2710, having earlier shot up as high as $1.2772.

The euro briefly dipped to a session low of $1.2705 after data earlier in the day showed orders for durable goods, or items meant to last three years or more, beat forecasts in June, while weekly initial jobless claims fell more than expected.

“You’d expect a surge of dollar strength on the back of this because it is strong data for the U.S. economy, quite frankly. Jobless claims below 300,000 is significant — we haven’t been there for a while — and the headline durable goods number was strong,” said Greg Anderson, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO in Chicago.

“But the fact that the dollar only got a little out of the ‘knee-jerk’ (move) suggests the dollar is offered,” he said.

Data that showed a fall in new home sales in June added to the pressure on the dollar and financial futures trimmed back expectations for an August rate hike even further. For details, on new home sales.

The chances of a rate rise to 5.50 percent at the Fed’s next policy meeting on Aug. 8, as reflected by the fed funds futures market, have now dropped to about 43 percent from about 60 percent two days ago, removing a vital pillar of support for the U.S. currency.

But some analysts said this tapering in expectations could be overdone.

“The market probably has gotten itself a little too optimistic about the Fed ending the tightening process,” said Robert Sinche, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America.

“We are at critical juncture in terms of expectations, and we think continued higher inflation expectations will force the Fed to move twice more,” he said.

(来源自大公报)

美联储局发表最新的褐皮书经济报告表示，过去一个月美国多个地区经济增长放缓，消费物价升势和薪酬上调温和，强化下月暂停加息的机会，巿场预期下月加息机会降至仅四成四。报告公布不久，随即拖低美元汇价，兑每欧元创三个月最大挫幅，跌穿1.27，见1.2750；每美元兑日圆亦录得三周最大跌幅，其后更跌穿116，低见115.49。\大公报记者 杨静雯

联储局经济报告称，由六月至七月中，整体经济保持增长，但半数联储分区包括费城、克里夫兰、里士满和芝加哥的经济增长均呈放缓状态，不少经济数据亦印证经济增长步伐放慢的现象。

楼巿冷却

楼巿方面，报告提到大部分地区的房地产巿场正在冷却，住宅需求普遍消减，致交投活动趋于淡静，不少主要都巿可售自住楼宇现货囤积，连带住宅建筑活动亦相对减少，惟商业楼宇需求仍然殷切。的确，六月份二手楼销售跌至五个月低位，足见美国持续两年加息周期奏效。

销售疲弱

报告又指出，纵然能源及其他成本价格上升，但零售销售乏力向上，薪酬、商品和服务价格的增长依然温和。国民薪酬方面，基本薪酬增长温和，但管理阶层，专业人士和技术工人加薪速度较快，反映劳动巿场仍紧张。

联储局指出，零售业销情较去年同期疲弱，虽然个别地区报告显示，制造业及零售业均将上涨成本转嫁消费者，但广泛而言，巿场竞争激烈遏抑物价上扬，故商品价格涨幅温和。

通胀受控

联储局本月预测，今年经济增长率降至介乎3.25至3.5%，而明年则进一步放缓3至3.25%之间。储局刚于上周调升通胀预期，以确保通胀情况仍控于储局手中，然而今次报告特别指出通胀情况因不同地区和行业而异。

从今次褐皮书报告来看，联储局明显唱淡息口，分析员认为联储局似乎倾向点出经济疲软的理据，少谈能源价格飙升及收紧薪酬的一面，巿场人士相信联储局下月暂缓加息在望。

孳息下跌

利率期货显示，预期下月加息四分一厘至5.5厘的机会率，由前日五成二降至四成四。美国国库债券价格周三亦高位收巿，十年期国债孳息率跌至5.03厘，为六周最低位，而五年期孳息更跌穿5厘，低见4.99厘。

联储局前副主席布林德(Alan Blinder)认为，若不是通货膨胀升势，以及中东局势阴霾犹在，相信储局早就暂停加息。以目前的通胀形态而论，储局会继续收紧银根，预估美息5.5厘为顶，意即会再加息一次，可能下月调升，又或者下月暂时按兵不动，然后再上调息率。

美银纽约外汇策略师辛奇表示，年底前通胀情况或继续升温，他认为下月暂缓加息的机会极之稀微，估计联储局至少再多加两次息。他相信再加息有助推高美元，美银将会吸纳更多美元。

加息预期大减，美元走势备受拖累，兑欧元汇价周三创三个月最大挫幅后，昨日见1.2750兑一欧元的两周新低；每美元兑日圆昨日跌穿116，见115.49的一周新低；美元兑每澳元跌穿76美仙，见76.48美仙，直迫两个月低位。

笔者发现报章和一般市场人士皆唱好英磅,所以现在实为入市沽英磅良机

NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - The dollar continued its slide against the euro on Thursday as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed policy-makers saw “significant uncertainty” about the path of interest rates.

That bolstered expectations that the central bank may be nearing the end of a rate-hiking campaign that began in 2004. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee lifted rates by a quarter point to 5.25 percent — its 17th straight increase — at its meeting on June 29.

“What grabs me is that one member said the June increase was a close call. The bottom line is that future rate increases are not preordained, and it seems like some members are very warm to the idea of a pause,” said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York.

Indeed, that was the message financial markets took away from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s two-day testimony before Congress this week.

On Wednesday, Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that U.S. inflation was likely to ease in coming quarters as the economy slows, and he repeated that message Thursday to the House Financial Services Committee.

That dented the confidence of dollar bulls who expected the Fed to prolong its tightening campaign to combat inflation.

After the recent dovish signals from the Fed, rate futures were pricing in just a 51 percent chance of another rate hike at the Fed’s Aug. 8 meeting. Before the first leg of Bernanke’s testimony on Wednesday, the chances were closer to 90 percent.

A survey from the Philadelphia Reserve Bank on Thursday that showed growth in factory activity in July slowing by more than expected seemed to back the Fed’s view that economic growth is set to slow. The survey’s business activity index fell to 6.0 this month from 13.1 in June, above forecasts for a dip to 12.0.

But some strategists noted that future interest rate moves will remain closely tied to incoming data.

Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, said the meeting minutes can be considered “slightly dovish” but added that policymakers “are clearly keeping the door open so that if there is a need, they can increase rates again.”

Also Thursday, European Central Bank governing council member Nicholas Garganas said inflation risks were worsening in the euro zone now that the economy is growing at a 0.6 percent quarterly rate.

The remarks failed to add much to the euro’s climb, though, as markets have largely priced in another rate hike from the European Central Bank when it meets in August.

(来源自大公报)

美元汇价昨日在低位徘徊，美元兑每欧元跌近1.26边缘，见1.2597，较周三晚1.2456的三个月高位大幅回落；每美元兑日圆低见116.73，主要因为美国联储局主席伯南克表示通胀将回落，令市场对美国可能持续加息的预期降温。

分析员料联储局即将公布的上月会议纪录，将传达同一讯息。大和总研资深经济师及货币分析员Yuji Kameoka说，市场对联储局进一步加息的预期大为降温，令美元见顶回落，相信联储局上月会议纪录将反映众官员对息口走高拖慢经济的忧虑。

在彭博社追踪的十六种主要货币当中，美元兑十四种货币汇价全告下跌。一旦联储局结束加息周期，美元资产相对日圆及欧元资产的吸引力便大为下降，欧、日两地现时均酝酿持续加息的可能性。

伯南克周三晚发表证词时，强调利率政策的滞后影响，反映联储局忧虑加息过度会对经济构成冲击。另方面，伯南克又重申，美国经济增长已呈放缓，预料通胀亦会随之降温，与联储局上月议息声明的态度一致，其暂停加息的意向彰彰甚明。

不过，伯南克发表证词前，劳工部公布，六月核心通胀率达至0.3%，高过市场预期，以年率计，在过去半年核心通胀率更达3.2%，是九五年以来最高，通胀数据犹如与伯南克的言论唱反调。核心通胀公布后，美元兑欧元及日圆一度冲上三个月新高，但伯南克讲话后，美元即掉头急挫，兑每欧元曾穿1.26见1.2610，录得三周以来最大跌幅，兑日圆则低见116.65。

核心通胀数据公布后，利率期货走势反映，投资者认为联储局下月加息的机会有九成，但伯南克发表证词后，就随即急降至六成多。堪萨斯联储银行行长霍尼周三在另一场合说，通胀会逐渐降温，更表示联储局有可能过度加息。霍尼是一众官员当中抗通胀立场较强硬的一名，其言论充分反映该局对加息已有却步之意。

另一方面，日圆兑英镑汇价昨日跌至八年新低，见215.55兑一英镑，即使日本央行上周五已进行五年多以来首次加息行动，将目标利率由零调升至0.25厘，但当地投资者仍视之为超低水平，故继续吸纳海外的高息资产。英国较早前公布通胀数据较预期强劲，市场憧憬英伦银行今年底前可能会再加息，英国利率现为4.5厘。