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NEW YORK, June 2 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened across the board on Friday after weaker-than-forecast U.S. job creation in May bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its campaign of interest rate hikes.

The net 75,000 non-farm payroll jobs created last month suggested slowing economic growth going forward, and inflationary pressures as measured by average hourly earnings were also soft.

These numbers strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve might not raise interest rates at its June 28-29 meeting.

“The market will now pay close attention to fed fund futures,” said Ron Simpson, director of currency analysis at Action Economics in New York. “Looking at Treasury yields, they are considerably lower. The market will move to quickly thinking the Fed will stand pat in June, which will put downward pressure on the dollar.”

Ken Landon, senior currency strategist at JP Morgan in New York, reckoned that the employment data “really cements the case” for the Fed to pause in its rate-raising campaign later this month.

Midmorning on Friday, fed funds futures contracts were pricing in a 46 percent chance the Fed will raise rates at its June 28-29 meeting, down from 68 percent before the jobs data. Earlier this week, markets were pricing in an 80 percent chance the Fed would raise rates this month.

Midmorning on Friday, the euro was up around 0.8 percent on the day at $1.2915. It hit a session high of $1.2940, close to the one-year high in mid-May of $1.2971.

The dollar was down 0.8 percent on the day at 111.70 yen, down from around 112.75 yen before the data.

The dollar was also down around 1 percent against both sterling at $1.8825 and the Swiss franc at 1.2090 francs.

Economists surveyed in a Reuters poll had an average forecast of 175,000 new jobs created in May.

But that survey was taken on May 26. Later, some banks, including Goldman Sachs and Calyon, trimmed their forecasts to 150,000.

“The FX market response is what you would expect from such a weaker number: lower dollar across the board,” said Greg Anderson, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO in Chicago.

The federal funds rate currently stands at 5 percent, but the diminishing chances of the Fed raising again in June stand in contrast to the strengthening expectations the European Central Bank will raise benchmark rates next week.

The ECB’s benchmark refinancing rate stands at 2.5 percent. With growth and inflation in the 12-nation bloc picking up, some observers say the ECB might even raise rates by 50 basis points next week.

The spread between U.S. and euro-zone interest rates as implied by December eurodollar and euribor futures narrowed by around 5 basis points in the euro’s favor immediately after the U.S. jobs report, according to Reuters data.

The dollar did not react to a report showing a smaller-than-expected drop in U.S. factory orders April.

(Additional reporting by Nick Olivari and Kevin Plumberg)

美国联储局昨日发表联邦公开巿场委员会(FOMC)五月份的会议纪录，内容反映联储局未能确定在本月底议息时，是否需要加息，以及加息幅度。从利率期货走势显示，预期联储局六月廿九日会议，再调升息率四分一厘至5.25厘的投资者，急增至近日的72%，高过五月十日开会当日的40%。上月会议中，有联储局委员提出加息半厘，是前年展开加息以来首度讨论的建议，亦有人希望维持息率不变。在五月十日的会议纪录中，委员会的议论重点不在于如何对付通胀风险，而集中讨论加息的时机，以及加息幅度。委员似乎对下一步加息行动所抱持的意见甚为分歧，有人建议加息半厘，亦有一名委员倾向息率维持不变。最后委员会一致通过，调升息率由4.75厘至5厘，认为加息四分一厘是较为合适的做法，既可压抑通胀的风险，又能让经济增长持续。这次是联储局自前年中以来，连续第十六次加息。

经济有放缓迹象

众委员均认为，扣除食物及能源价格之外，整体消费物价上涨情况将稍高于早前预期，尤其是近期能源价格再度呈现升势，将于未来数月带动其他物价上升。事实上，最近一些消费调查，以及转投国债巿场的投资者增加，亦反映巿场通胀预期上升。

然而，仍有多项因素抑制通胀，例如国民薪金升幅放缓，而企业边际利润及生产力上升，意味成本未因商品价格而大幅上升。而委员会也观察到美国经济活动放慢，特别是房地产方面，受长期加息影响而降温。另外，当地国民的消费表现亦减弱。

联储局希望能透过息率的调整，在经济增长放慢步伐，及通胀预期上升之间取得平衡。总括五月份会议而言，委员会无法确定未来货币政策的去向，强调尚待本月底开会前将公布的经济数据，才能肯定本月廿九日议息时所采取的行动。

雷曼兄弟美国首席经济师哈里斯表示，巿场人士猜测联储局本月底究竟会暂停加息，抑或再调升息口四分一厘，但从上月会议内容，有人提出加息半厘，可见委员会对再加息四分一厘的态度比预期中强硬。

房屋销售下降

High Frequency Economics分析员Ian Shepherdson认为，纵然联储局未肯定再度加息与否，但从上月会议的讨论，联储局似乎打消了六月暂停加息的念头。不过，他预期美国零售表现疲弱，房屋销售下降，加息未必是正确的决定。

此外，会议纪录透露，联储局主席伯南克成立沟通委员会，并任命由副主席科恩(Donald Kohn)率领沟通委员会，目的是透过该委员会，对外提供更多有关联储局的决策详情、近期的经济预测及其他声明发表。

(來源自大公報)

By David McMahon

NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters) - The dollar was little changed against the euro and yen on Thursday, erasing earlier gains after a soft U.S. manufacturing survey and a warning from the European Central Bank that global imbalances could hurt the U.S. currency.

The dollar quickly pared its gains after the ECB said in its twice-yearly Financial Stability review that any unravelingof global imbalances - code for the huge U.S. trade deficit and surpluses in Asian nations such as China — could trigger “significant downward pressure” on the dollar.

While the ECB said the risk of such a scenario was small, its comments come amid rising speculation that global policy-makers are content to see a weaker dollar to help rectify trade imbalances.

The ECB’s comments came just as data in the U.S. showed that factory activity rose at a surprisingly slow pace in May, with the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index logging its lowest reading since August 2005.

“You’ve got some weak U.S. data and the ECB coming out and saying the dollar might need to weaken further,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York.

“We could see a further slide in the dollar heading into payrolls on Friday.”

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity fell in May to 54.4 from 57.3 the prior month, a bigger drop than analysts had expected.

After the weaker-than-expected data several banks and brokers, including Goldman Sachs, revised down their expectations for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Midafternoon in New York, the euro was barely changed on the day at $1.2805, having fallen as low as $1.2722 earlier.

The dollar was also flat against the yen, trading at 112.65 yen. Earlier in the global session it had risen to just below 113.40 yen on follow-through buying prompted by fairly hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting that helped fuel speculation the Fed would raise rates again later this month.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was up slightly at 1.2200 francs. Sterling fell 0.2 percent to $1.8660.

All eyes are now on the U.S. employment report for May, which will be released on Friday.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss)

(From Reuters)

By Hideyuki SanoTOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting stoked expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates again later this month.

Minutes released on Wednesday from the May 10 meeting show that policy makers were not sure how much higher rates should climb, if at all, but a mention that inflationary pressures were increasing helped boost expectations that rates would rise.

The minutes offered an incentive to buy back the dollar in a market rattled by concerns about the recent sell-off in world share markets and uncertainty about U.S. currency policy under Treasury secretary nominee Henry Paulson.

U.S. President George W. Bush on Tuesday named Paulson, chairman of investment bank Goldman Sachs, to succeed John Snow as Treasury chief.

“The Fed’s minutes set off short-covering in the dollar,” said Koichi Yoshikawa, head of forex trading at BNP Paribas.

“It’s not that speculators are taking new positions, they are just unwinding old positions.”

The U.S. currency came under pressure after calls in April from the Group of Seven economic powers for appreciation in Asian currencies sparked speculation that Washington wants a weaker dollar to stem the ballooning U.S. current deficit.

The yen shrugged off news that Moody’s Investors Service upgraded its rating outlook on Japan’s domestic debt to positive from stable due to an improving economy and fiscal reform efforts.

But the U.S. currency was hemmed in against the yen due to options-related offers to sell the dollar from around 112.70 yen and sell offers from Japanese exporters.

Some traders said that news of an explosion at a chemical plant in northern England prompted selling in sterling in early trade, dragging the euro down too.

A police spokesman said in a recorded statement that the blast — in which there were no reported deaths — had taken place shortly after midnight at an ammonia plant. He added that there were “no off site implications at this time”.

By 0605 GMT, the euro slipped to $1.2775 from around $1.2810 in late U.S. trade on Wednesday. Sterling fell to $1.8665 from $1.8697.

The dollar was little changed at 112.60 yen .

DATA AHEAD

For further clues about the Fed’s stance on rates the market was focusing on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday, which will give an update on the strength of the U.S. labour market.

The Fed, which has raised rates 16 times in a row since mid-2004 to 5 percent, is seen in a difficult position of having to weigh the risk for higher inflation against concern over a slowdown in the housing sector.

The Fed is slated to hold its next policy meeting on June 28-29.

The market was waiting to digest the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey due at 1400 GMT. Economists polled by Reuters expect the index to show a fall to 55.5 in May from 57.3 a month earlier.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano)

(From Reuters)

美元汇价承接周二晚跌势，美元兑欧元下挫至近1.29水平，一度跌见1.2895兑一欧元，每美元兑日圆则跌见111.46，高盛主席兼行政总裁鲍尔森获提名为候任财长，对美元好友而言可谓一大喜讯，惟美元汇价却未能止跌回升。分析员认为，即使拥有华尔街背景的鲍尔森上任，亦未必会奉行强美元政策，因为当务之急，是要解决全球经济失衡问题。

鲍尔森被提名为候任财长，以其在华尔街累积的经验和建立的信誉，由他出任财长可谓绰绰有余，对金融市场而言亦是一大喜讯。此外，有分析指出，来自华尔街的财长多奉行强美元政策，藉此吸引外资流入本土的资本市场，前美国总统克林顿在任期间，来自高盛的财长鲁宾（Robert Rubin）就是一个好例子。

机缘巧合，今次获提名为财长的鲍尔森亦是来自高盛，但他获提名的消息却未能支持美元止跌回升。美元兑一篮子货币汇价昨日录得一月初以来最大单日跌幅。美元兑每欧元跌见1.2895，周二纽约尾盘报1.2870，交易员表示，一旦美元跌破1.29的支持位，料有机会下试五月中创下1.2970的一年低位。每美元兑日圆低见111.46，周二纽尾盘报112.16；而每美元兑加元更跌见1.0932的二十八年新低。

市场对于华府偏向奉行弱美元政策的揣测丝毫无减，主要因为七大公业国（G7）财长和国际货币基金织组（IMF）已先后暗示希望美元转弱，藉此解决全球经济失衡问题。而市场亦揣测，华府会透过弱美元政策，消除庞大的经常帐赤字。三菱东京联合信托银行外汇部经理表示，无论由谁出任财长，G7和IMF要求弱美元的意向已是不争的事实。

MG Financial Group首席经济师拉伊迪说，以鲍尔森的经验和信誉，其提名可被视为一种防范措施，以遏止美元跌势加剧至无法控制的速度，尤其是现时有不同的内在和外在因素正对美元构成下调压力。

而日本财务相谷垣祯一则表示，鲍尔森上任后，美国的利率政策不会有多�