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在联储局加息四分一厘到5.25厘后, 美元下跌. 原因是次加息, 已为市场预期. 而且市场相信八月份加息机会大幅下降,故美元下跌. 欧元由1.2530上升至1.2662或上升0.5%

在息口期货市场方面, 从市场表现可看到, 八月份加息的机会现在是50/50. 市场不再一面倒认为联储局会在八月份加息.

The dollar dropped on Thursday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, as expected, and left open the possibility the U.S. central bank will pause in tightening policy in August.

The Fed raised overnight rates by a quarter percentage point for the 17th straight time in two years, to 5.25 percent, but said slowing economic growth should help limit inflation.

The euro reversed small losses after the Fed’s policy statement was released, rising 0.5 percent to a session high of $1.2662 from around $1.2530 before the Fed’s decision and statement.

The interest rate futures market reflected a 50/50 chance the Fed will hike rates by a quarter point again in August, sharply down from around 80 percent earlier Thursday.

市场料美国今年至少再加息两次，支持美元兑各主要货币全线上扬，每美元兑日圆报115.78，创八周新高，每欧元兑美元见1.2589。另外，朝鲜局势紧张，拖累韩圜及日圆走势，韩圜在亚洲早段见962.40兑一美元，跌0.7%，日圆兑每欧元见145.86。

即使美联储局主席伯南克上周五“出口术”，淡化油价对通胀的影响，以纾缓通胀忧虑，惟投资者仍料储局今年最少再加息两次。利率期货显示，投资者认为储局于月底加息已成定局，而八月加息的机会更高达67%。对美国息口最敏感的两年期美债孳息上周升创○○年十二月以来新高，报5.159厘，十年期美债孳息上周报5.128厘，短息高于长息，显示投资者料储局将续加息以遏通胀。

瑞银资深经济师奥沙利文说，储局希望表现其抗通胀的决心，由此看来，储局将继续加息。在息口因素支持下，美元兑各主要货币昨日全线上扬，每欧元兑美元跌见1.2589，上周五纽约收市时报1.2640，跌幅0.5%，迫近上周1.2530的七周低位。每美元兑日圆见115.78的八周新高。

另边厢，朝鲜局势紧张，拖累韩圜跌见962.40兑一美元，跌幅0.7%。有消息称，朝鲜可能试射长程导弹，日官员警告，朝鲜一旦试射导弹，日方会提出严厉抗议，及采取制裁，美日两国亦会要求联合国安理会采取相应行动。事件为亚洲金融市场增添不明朗因素，区内各主要货币全线报跌，坡元跌穿1.6水平，见1.6006兑一美元的两个月新低，台币跌见32.617兑一美元，跌近半个百分点。

日本与朝鲜关系紧张，加上日本央行行长福井俊彦上周被指涉内幕交易丑闻，反对党施加更大压力，要求福井下台，虽然大部分市场人士认为福井不会下台，但事件可能延误日央行完结零息政策的决定，日圆汇价偏软，每欧元兑日圆升见145.86的历史新高。

美国银行一名驻东京货币策略师说，当地缘政治的风险因素减弱，市场便会重新关注基本因素。各地央行陆续加息，而日本央行却仍然按兵不动，福井的丑闻左右央行完结零息政策，进一步深化日圆颓势。

(来源自大公报)

By David McMahon

NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) - The dollar rose across the board on Monday as investors focused on the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates on the back of recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve officials’ warnings on inflation.

The dollar posted strong gains against European currencies, touching a six-week high against the Swiss franc, supported by expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates this month and maybe again in August, before the Labor Day three-dayweekend.

“Interest rate differentials are moving more in favor of the dollar, and that’s giving it a little bit of support,” said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange trading at ING Capital Markets.

“That said, we’re still stuck in the broad ranges of $1.25 to $1.27 (for euro/dollar) and I don’t see us breaking out of that for a while.”

With little major U.S. economic data due this week, and many market players with one eye on their televisions watching the World Cup, traders said that activity was unusually thin.

Earlier, the yen also fell to eight-year troughs against sterling and the Swiss franc on concern about a North Korean missile test and cooling expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates from zero as early as July.

But the yen later reversed those losses to be up on the day against most major currencies apart from the dollar. Traders said there was little fundamental behind the pullback.

With little U.S. economic data this week apart from May housing starts and durable goods orders, analysts said the market’s focus was squarely on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on June 28-29.

(From Reuters)

The dollar slipped on Wednesday as traders trimmed their positions after May U.S. inflation data cemented chances of a June Federal Reserve interest rate hike but shed little light on policy moves beyond that.

A rumour talking about central bank buying of euros shortly after the inflation report spooked short-term investors into taking profits on the dollar’s seven-day rally against the euro.

The market had accumulated fairly large bets on the dollar heading into the data, so an unwind of positioning accelerated the greenback’s decline.

The consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose a greater-than-expected 0.3 percent and the annual rate edged up to 2.4 percent, exceeding the upper threshold of what some Fed officials consider acceptable.

Growing expectations that the Fed will raise rates this month and possibly beyond, as well as a diminished appetite for risk, have boosted the U.S. currency this week.